More excellent news from SDX Energy (SDX) today and the share price did nothing. Indeed, none of their recent RNS announcements (all highly positive) have had any meaningful impact on the share price, which has more or less flat lined. Why? Very simply, the small cap market gets excited about exploration plays (the unknown) and boredom sets in once the development / production stage (the known) is reached. At this point, companies can only be valued on the basis of comparison with other quoted companies and in the initial development stage the sustainable production level is difficult to define. The company at this point also enters a no mans land where the existing speculative investors are selling out to reinvest in new exploration plays, but it is not yet at the stage where new fundamentals focussed, income orientated investors are fully ready to commit.
Furthermore, how much are the reserves and production really worth in countries where property rights are not necessarily guaranteed? This is why companies such as Eland Oil & Gas (ELA), which also released positive news today, are such apparent bargains. But these type of companies always have been "bargains" and always will be.
To better understand political risk, read this from Gulfsands Petroleum (GPX)'s first RNS announcement today:
"Gulfsands' core strategy continues to focus on its assets in North East Syria where Gulfsands is the operator of, and holds a 50% working interest in, a production sharing contract ("PSC") in respect of Block 26, which the Company views as a geo-technically world class asset. At present, Gulfsands remains unable to be actively involved in operations, due to existing EU sanctions, though it understands that the assets are in good order, materially undamaged and operationally fit. As previously reported, the Company was informed by Dijla Petroleum Company ("DPC") that the oil fields in Block 26 were returned to production in early 2017, with oil being produced from up to thirteen production wells. The Company understands, but is unable to verify, that the average oil production rate from Block 26 continues to be around 15-20,000 barrels of oil per day and that production from Block 26 during the 2017 calendar year was around 6.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. The Company continues to work on verifying this information and confirming the status of this production under the terms of the PSC, which is unclear at this time. Gulfsands has not recognised any revenue for any production under the PSC since the advent of a force majeure event and implementation of EU sanctions in 2011. Gulfsands remains committed to compliance with EU sanctions and is focused on maintaining its readiness to resume operational activities once EU sanctions are lifted."
This was followed a short while later by the following:
"As a result of strategic discussions with the Major Shareholders related to the Facility extension, the Directors have also concluded that it would currently be in the best interests of the Company to seek Shareholder approval to cancel the admission of its Ordinary Shares from trading on AIM (the "Delisting"), a decision which is supported by all three Major Shareholders who have each provided irrevocable undertakings to vote in favour of the Delisting which amount to approximately 83% of the votes to be cast at the general meeting to be convened to approve the Delisting."
A cautionary tale.
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The author holds one or more investments in one or more of the companies mentioned so this post cannot be viewed as independent research. This post does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell and may be incorrect or outdated.
Note: No investments in the companies mentioned today.